Polymarket Executor — Multi-Strategy Trading Bot

🎯 WHAT IT DOES

Autonomous trading bot for Polymarket prediction markets.

Starts in paper mode (simulated capital, zero risk) to validate strategy performance before deploying real money. Reads configuration from learned_config.json (adjusted automatically by polymarket-optimizer every 6 hours).

Markets covered:

✅ Crypto (BTC, ETH, altcoins — price targets, daily/weekly)
✅ Politics (elections, policy, polls, government decisions)
✅ Sports (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, Soccer, UFC, Tennis, Golf)
✅ Economics (Fed rates, CPI, jobs reports, GDP)
✅ Technology (Apple, Tesla, Google, IPOs, launches)
✅ Entertainment (Oscars, Emmys, box office)
✅ Weather (hurricanes, temperature records, climate events)
✅ Miscellaneous (all binary outcome markets)

Total markets scanned: 500–5000+ per cycle

⚡ QUICK START

Paper Mode (Default — No credentials needed)

cd /data/.openclaw/workspace/skills/polymarket-executor
python3 polymarket_executor.py

Expected output:

============================================================
POLYMARKET EXECUTOR v2.0.0
============================================================
[MODE] 📄 PAPER TRADING (simulated capital: $100.00)
[CONFIG] Loaded learned_config.json
[GAMMA] Fetched 2,341 markets
[SCAN] Scanning 500 markets with 50 workers...
[SCAN] Found 8 opportunities
[TRADE] PAPER: parity_arbitrage | YES+NO = $0.94 | Edge: 6.3%
[PORTFOLIO] Capital: $100.00 | Open: 2 | P&L: +$0.00

Live Mode (After paper validation)

export PAPER_MODE=false
export POLYMARKET_API_KEY="your_key"
export POLYMARKET_SECRET="your_secret"
export POLYMARKET_PASSPHRASE="your_passphrase"
export POLYMARKET_CAPITAL=50.0
python3 polymarket_executor.py

🔥 STRATEGIES

1. Parity Arbitrage — Risk: ZERO ✅

YES + NO prices don't sum to $1.00 → buy both → guaranteed profit

YES: $0.45 + NO: $0.49 = $0.94 total
Buy both → payout: $1.00 → profit: 6.4%
Risk: NONE (guaranteed regardless of outcome)

Frequency: 5–20/day | Win rate: 100%

2. Tail-End Trading — Risk: Very Low ✅

Buy >95% certainty outcomes, wait for $1.00 resolution

Fed keeps rates → 98% certain → price: $0.97
Buy at $0.97 → resolution: $1.00 → profit: 3.1%
Risk: Very low (event almost certain)

Frequency: 10–30/day | Win rate: 95–98%

3. Logical Arbitrage — Risk: Low ✅

Finds impossible price combinations between related markets

"BTC > 100k by March" = 40%
"BTC > 90k by March"  = 35%   ← IMPOSSIBLE (90k < 100k)

Buy "BTC > 90k" at 35% — must resolve ≥ "BTC > 100k"

Frequency: 2–10/day | Win rate: 90–95%

📊 RISK MANAGEMENT

Protection	Value	Description
Kelly Criterion	25% fraction	Conservative position sizing
Max position	10% of capital	Per-market limit
Max concurrent	3 trades	Open positions cap
Circuit breaker	-15% daily	Halts all trading
Stop-loss	-50% per position	Auto-close losing trades
Max daily trades	20	Hard cap per day

🧠 ADAPTIVE LEARNING

The executor reads learned_config.json at startup. The optimizer updates this file every 6 hours.

What adapts automatically:

min_parity_profit — raised if false positives, lowered if win rate excellent
min_tail_end_certainty — adjusted based on tail-end win rate
min_logical_edge — tightened if logical arb underperforms
kelly_fraction — reduced if portfolio in drawdown
strategy_allocation — capital shifted toward best-performing strategies
scan_interval_seconds — faster scans when performing well

📁 FILES CREATED

File	Description
`paper_trades.json`	All simulated trade records
`portfolio.json`	Capital, positions, daily P&L
`performance_metrics.json`	Per-strategy stats for optimizer
`live_trades.jsonl`	Real trade log (live mode only)
`learned_config.json`	Optimizer-adjusted parameters

📱 TELEGRAM ALERTS

🎯 POLYMARKET SCAN COMPLETE

📊 Markets scanned: 500
🔍 Opportunities: 8

💼 PORTFOLIO
💰 Capital: $100.00
📈 Daily P&L: +$2.34
🎯 Win Rate: 75.0%
📊 Open positions: 2

📋 OPPORTUNITIES
• parity_arbitrage: 6.3% edge
  Fed Rate Decision — Keeps...
• tail_end: 3.1% edge
  Chiefs win Super Bowl...

✅ LIVE READINESS CHECKLIST

Before switching PAPER_MODE=false:

30+ resolved paper trades
Win rate ≥ 55%
Positive total P&L
No circuit breaker triggered
Polymarket API credentials configured
USDC on Polygon wallet
Residential proxy configured (VPS blocks CLOB POST)

The polymarket-optimizer will report readiness automatically.

⚠️ VPS / PROXY NOTE

Polymarket CLOB API blocks datacenter IPs (including Hostinger VPS) for POST /order.

Reading markets: works fine on VPS (no proxy needed) Placing orders: requires residential proxy in live mode

Recommended: IPRoyal, BrightData rotating residential proxy. Paper mode works 100% without proxy.

Version: 2.0.0 | License: MIT | Author: Georges Andronescu (Wesley Armando)

Polymarket Executor