Detect arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket. Monitor spread arbitrage, cross-market correlations, news-driven opportunities. Use for prediction market tradi...
Detect risk-free arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket.
# Scan all markets for arbitrage opportunities
neckr0ik-polymarket-trader scan
# Monitor specific market for spreads
neckr0ik-polymarket-trader monitor --market "will-trump-declare-war"
# Find cross-platform arbitrage
neckr0ik-polymarket-trader cross-platform --markets bitcoin-100k
# Correlate news with markets
neckr0ik-polymarket-trader news --keywords "Israel,Iran,war"
When YES + NO prices don't equal $1.00.
Example:
YES: $0.48
NO: $0.50
Combined: $0.98
Profit: $0.02 (2.04% risk-free)
Related markets with inconsistent pricing.
Example:
"Trump wins 2026?" @ 55%
"Republican wins?" @ 48%
→ Logically impossible. Trump > Republican shouldn't happen.
Breaking news vs. market pricing.
Example:
News: "Israel strikes Tehran. Trump demands surrender."
Market: "Will Trump declare war on Iran?" @ 40%
Signal: Military action ≠ war declaration. May be overpriced.
Same event on Polymarket vs Kalshi.
Example:
Polymarket: "BTC > $100k by EOY" YES @ 0.55
Kalshi: Same market YES @ 0.62
→ Buy Polymarket, sell Kalshi. 7% locked profit.
Near-certain outcomes close to resolution.
Example:
Market resolves in 48 hours
Current price: $0.97
Buy and hold to $1.00
→ 3% profit in 2 days (548% annualized)
Scan all markets for arbitrage.
neckr0ik-polymarket-trader scan [options]
Options:
--min-spread <pct> Minimum spread percentage (default: 2)
--max-results <n> Max results to return (default: 20)
--output <format> Output format (table, json, csv)
Continuously monitor specific markets.
neckr0ik-polymarket-trader monitor --market <id> [options]
Options:
--interval <sec> Check interval (default: 5)
--alert-spread <pct> Alert when spread exceeds threshold
--webhook <url> Send alerts to webhook
Compare prices across platforms.
neckr0ik-polymarket-trader cross-platform [options]
Options:
--platforms <list> Platforms to compare (polymarket,kalshi)
--min-spread <pct> Minimum spread (default: 3)
Correlate breaking news with markets.
neckr0ik-polymarket-trader news --keywords <terms> [options]
Options:
--sources <list> News sources (reuters,ap,cnbc,bbc)
--market-keywords <list> Polymarket search terms
--alert Send alerts on correlation
Find near-resolution opportunities.
neckr0ik-polymarket-trader endgame [options]
Options:
--min-prob <pct> Minimum probability (default: 95)
--max-days <n> Max days to resolution (default: 7)
--min-roi <pct> Minimum annualized ROI (default: 100)
ARBITRAGE FOUND
Market: Will Bitcoin reach $100k by EOY 2026?
YES Price: $0.48
NO Price: $0.50
Spread: 2.0% ($0.02)
Volume: $1.2M
Profit/Trade: $20 per $1,000
Annualized: 548% (if held 2 days)
CORRELATION VIOLATION
Market 1: "Will Trump win 2026?" @ 55%
Market 2: "Will a Republican win?" @ 48%
Issue: Trump winning implies Republican wins
Logic: Market 1 should be <= Market 2
Action: Sell Market 1 YES, Buy Market 2 NO
NEWS-MARKET CORRELATION
Breaking News: "Israel strikes Tehran. Trump demands surrender."
Related Markets:
1. "Will Trump declare war on Iran?" @ 40% → May be OVERPRICED
2. "Will Israel strike Lebanon?" @ 85% → Already occurred
3. "Will oil hit $100?" @ 25% → May be UNDERPRICED
Signal: Military action ≠ formal war declaration
| Method | Detection Time | Execution |
|---|---|---|
| Manual | Minutes | Seconds |
| Semi-auto | Seconds | Manual |
| Full bot | Milliseconds | Sub-100ms |
| Platform | Fee |
|---|---|
| Polymarket US | 0.01% |
| Polymarket Int'l | 2% on winnings |
| Polygon gas | ~$0.007 |
references/polymarket-strategies.md — Full strategy guidescripts/arbitrage_detector.py — Detection enginescripts/news_correlator.py — News-market correlationZIP package — ready to use